NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, center, speaks with Turkey’s President Recap Tayyip Erdogan, left,
and Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson during a meeting ahead of a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania,
Monday, July 10, 2023. (Yves Herman, Pool Photo via AP, File)
Hannah Ritter, Research Intern
The America-Eurasia Center
https://www.eurasiacenter.org/
NATO heads of state and government pose during a group photo at a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. July 11th, 2023. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin).
Summary
For the past two centuries, Sweden has distanced itself from international military
alliances yet still has given military aid to NATO systems. However, Sweden ended their
years of international neutrality when it submitted an official letter of application to join
NATO in May 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Under
NATO’s Accession protocols, all NATO members need to ratify Sweden’s Accession
Protocol. This accession period has been an ongoing issue for Sweden as Hungary and
Turkey have withheld Sweden’s accession bid for 2022 and early 2023.
However, a change occurred on July 10th, 2023, when Turkey approved Sweden’s
bid to join NATO in the final hours before the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Turkey’s diplomacy change stems from talks with the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf
Kristersson, over linking Sweden’s membership to Turkey’s application to join the
European Union. Additionally, Sweden’s willingness to amend its constitution, expand its
counter-terrorism cooperation against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and export arms
to Turkey.
This acceptance is only one step towards the lengthy accession process as Turkey’s
parliament still must ratify Sweden’s bid, which Turkish President, Tayyip Erdoğan, said
will not happen before October. Simultaneously, the head of the Hungarian parliament’s
Foreign Affairs Committee, Zsolt Nemeth, stated that Hungary will not forward Sweden’s
ratification until mid-September. Thus, there is a period where these countries can change
their opinion, and Sweden may be back to square one with their NATO membership.
This article goes more in-depth into why Turkey withheld accession to Sweden in
joining the intergovernmental military and political alliance and what changed for Turkey
with finally approving Sweden’s bid to NATO.
Why Turkey Withheld Sweden’s Accession
Following Sweden’s official letter of application to join NATO in May 2022, Turkey
instantly declared that it would not accept Sweden’s membership. Turkey stated that
Sweden protected militants from the terrorist group, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK),
which went against the Turkish government in 1984 and a 2016 coup attempt. The PKK is
still currently designated a terrorist group in Turkey, Sweden, the United States, and in
Europe. Hence, Turkey took a hard stance against Sweden’s membership.
At the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, Finland and Sweden agreed with Turkey to
pass more anti-terrorism laws and work on the extradition and deportation of suspected
militants. However, Sweden’s courts have blocked some expulsions of suspected militants
back to Turkey. Additionally, President Tayyip Erdoğan called on Sweden to take a harsher
stance against what Sweden sees as terrorists after demonstrators burned a copy of the
Qur’an outside a mosque and an unknown individual strung up an effigy of President
Tayyip Erdoğan in front of Stockholm City Hall.
There were also opinions that President Erdoğan’s stance against Sweden’s NATO
bid was driven by his desire to foster nationalism in his country ahead of the closely
contested election in May 2023. Ultimately, Erdoğan emerged victorious in the election
with 52.14% of the votes. Furthermore, it has been reported that Erdoğan is actively
seeking to procure F-16 fighter jets from the United States. Some speculate that he may
leverage this purchase as a bargaining chip, using his accession power to influence the
United States’ decision on the matter.
What Changed?
The conversation between Sweden’s Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, and Turkey’s
President, Tayyip Erdoğan, surprised everyone before the 2023 NATO Summit. A statement
by Kristersson following the meeting discussed the agreement between the two countries,
in which President Erdoğan committed to moving forward with the ratification of Sweden
to NATO. Sweden reaffirmed their commitments with the trilateral memorandum
agreement made at the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid. Additionally, Sweden agreed to
establish a new security dialogue, deepen its cooperation on trade and investments, and
strengthen the talks of Turkey’s accession to the European Union. There also were talks
about improving customs arrangements and taking steps to implement visa-free European
travel for Turkish citizens to Sweden.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, left, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg prior to their meeting, on the eve of the NATO summit, in Vilnius, Monday, July 10th, 2023 (Henrik Montgomery/TT News Agency via AP, File)
Regarding the F-16 Fighter Jets, both U.S. and Turkish officials have emphasized that
any potential deal would not be contingent upon Sweden’s NATO membership. Despite
these assurances, shortly after the news broke, President Joe Biden of the United States
indicated that the U.S. intends to move forward with the sale of F-16 jets, pending
consultation with Congress. It remains uncertain how the idea will fare in Congress, but
Turkey’s approach towards Sweden’s accession seems to be making some progress in
negotiations with the United States regarding the F-16 jets’ purchase.
Conclusion
In a surprising turn of events, discussions surrounding Sweden’s NATO membership
have gained momentum, and Turkey has signaled its willingness to accept Sweden as a
member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The move comes amid shifting
geopolitical dynamics and a desire from both countries to strengthen defense cooperation,
regional security, and counter-terrorism ties.
The next steps needed for Sweden are for Turkey’s Parliament to approve Sweden’s
membership bid. As stated before, this will not be a quick process and will take months for
Parliament to vote. Sweden also must wait for Hungary to move forward with Sweden’s
acceptance, but Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, stated that completing the
ratification process is now just a “technical matter” in which Hungary’s parliament will
vote this fall on the matter.
As for now, Sweden must wait a few months and hope that the promises and
agreements made before the 2023 NATO Summit remain in place as both Hungary and
Turkey agreed to move forward with Sweden’s accession. As for the other NATO allies, all
are delighted to welcome, with hope, the 32nd member country by the end of 2023.
About The Author
